Latest commentary
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?: Yes was quoted at 1.1%, while Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?: No was at 98.9% in the 3 August 2026, 17:39 UTC snapshot. The useful question is what those prices measure once the exact settlement trigger, evidence standard and market structure are taken into account.
Read the analysisWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on August 4?: Yes was quoted at 99.9%, while Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on August 4?: No was at 0.1% in the 3 August 2026, 17:39 UTC snapshot. The useful question is what those prices measure once the exact settlement trigger, evidence standard and market structure are taken into account.
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3?: Yes was quoted at 0.1%, while Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3?: No was at 100.0% in the 3 August 2026, 17:39 UTC snapshot. The useful question is what those prices measure once the exact settlement trigger, evidence standard and market structure are taken into account.
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?: Yes was quoted at 20.8%, while Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?: No was at 79.3% in the 3 August 2026, 17:39 UTC snapshot. The useful question is what those prices measure once the exact settlement trigger, evidence standard and market structure are taken into account.
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?: Yes was quoted at 0.2%, while Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?: No was at 99.8% in the 3 August 2026, 17:39 UTC snapshot. The useful question is what those prices measure once the exact settlement trigger, evidence standard and market structure are taken into account.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?: Yes was quoted at 4.2%, while US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?: No was at 95.9% in the 3 August 2026, 17:39 UTC snapshot. The useful question is what those prices measure once the exact settlement trigger, evidence standard and market structure are taken into account.
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?: Up was quoted at 100.0%, while S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?: Down was at 0.1% in the 3 August 2026, 17:39 UTC snapshot. The useful question is what those prices measure once the exact settlement trigger, evidence standard and market structure are taken into account.
We examine prediction-market prices as a record of collective expectations. Each article separates the contract language, the number on screen, and the outside context needed to interpret it.
Polyruler does not recommend trades or promise outcomes. A market price can be distorted by liquidity, contract wording, participant mix, or new information that arrives after publication.