Latest commentary
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 1?: Yes was quoted at 100%, while Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?: Yes was at 100% in the 1 August 2026, 11:39 UTC snapshot. The comparison is useful only when read against the settlement rules.
Read the analysisBitcoin Up or Down on August 1?: Up was quoted at 92.5%, while Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?: Up was at 92.5% in the 1 August 2026, 11:39 UTC snapshot. The comparison is useful only when read against the settlement rules.
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?: Yes was quoted at 12.5%, while Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?: Yes was at 10.2% in the 1 August 2026, 11:39 UTC snapshot. The comparison is useful only when read against the settlement rules.
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?: Yes was quoted at 80.5%, while Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?: Yes was at 16.5% in the 1 August 2026, 11:39 UTC snapshot. The comparison is useful only when read against the settlement rules.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?: Yes was quoted at 9.5%, while Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?: Yes was at 5.3% in the 1 August 2026, 11:39 UTC snapshot. The comparison is useful only when read against the settlement rules.
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 1?: Yes was quoted at 100%, while Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on August 1?: Yes was at 100% in the 1 August 2026, 11:39 UTC snapshot. The comparison is useful only when read against the settlement rules.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?: Yes was quoted at 59.5%, while Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?: Yes was at 38.5% in the 1 August 2026, 11:39 UTC snapshot. The comparison is useful only when read against the settlement rules.
We examine prediction-market prices as a record of collective expectations. Each article separates the contract language, the number on screen, and the outside context needed to interpret it.
Polyruler does not recommend trades or promise outcomes. A market price can be distorted by liquidity, contract wording, participant mix, or new information that arrives after publication.